CNN:
Global free trade talks collapsed on Monday after nearly five years of on-off haggling and resuming them could take years, officials and diplomats said.
The suspension of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha round, which was expected to be announced formally by WTO chief Pascal Lamy later on Monday, came after major trading powers failed in a last ditch bid to overcome differences on reforming world farm trade, which lies at the heart of the round.
“The WTO negotiations are suspended,” Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath told journalists. When asked how long the suspension could last, he replied: “Anywhere from months to years,” he said.
UPDATE: There doesn’t seem to be much to say. We all saw this coming. And there’s plenty of blame to go around. You could attack Susan Schwab for not accepting a minimalist outcome or the US for not being willing to move first so as to put the focus on countries who are clearly more protectionist or those nations for being the worst offenders or the special interests for being special interests or Bush for being Bush.
Regardless, no allocation of blame is likely to restart the negotiations. It’s time to start pursuing other strategies.
The option value of waiting:
1) EU will reform the CAP in 2008/2009 (to be implemented in 2013 as part of next 7 year budget). Blair got this at Dec 2005 summit, which was a slight concession on the deal Chirac and Schroder did at the 2002 summit to lock in CAP spending. THe new EU members want lots of CAP and lots of Structural spending, but since the later is directed from national capitals and the former from Brussels, they’ll use their huge voting power to downsize the CAP in favour of structural spending. This will, in essence, be a unilateral concession by the EU.
2) The US agric subsidy system will increasing be challanged under the appellate body system and US will be force to unilaterally make the concessions they resisted this month.
3) The US Congress will renew fast track so the US can continue playing the bilateral game (if for no other reason than the EU will continue to do so).
4) The DDA will close after the EU CAP reform; that’s what happened with Uruguay Round.
5) Making predictions is a dangerous thing, especially as concerns the future.